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Reduce the proportion of adolescents who used marijuana in the past month — SU‑06 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Source:  National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), SAMHSA

Baseline: 6.7 percent of adolescents aged 12 to 17 years reported use of marijuana in the past 30 days in 2018

Target: 5.8 percent

Numerator
Number of adolescents aged 12 to 17 years who reported marijuana use in the past 30 days.
Denominator
Number of adolescents aged 12 to 17 years.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because progress to further decrease marijuana use has slowed in recent years, but the trend was still moving in the right direction. A sharper decline may not be realistic.

Methodology

Questions used to obtain the national baseline data

(For additional information, please visit the data source page linked above.)

From the 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health:

Numerator:
Have you ever, even once, used [marijuana or hashish]?
  1. Yes
  2. No
How long has it been since you last used [marijuana or hashish]?
  1. Within the past 30 days — that is, since [DATE]
  2. More than 30 days ago but within the past 12 months
  3. More than 12 months ago

Methodology notes

Respondents are considered to have used marijuana or hashish if they report use of either substance in the past 30 days.

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.