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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce the colorectal cancer death rate — C‑06 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About this objective  |  Methodology  |  History

About this objective

Data

Data Sources:  National Vital Statistics System - Mortality (NVSS-M), CDC/NCHS; Population Estimates, Census

National baseline: 13.1 colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 population occurred in 2018

National target: 7.7 per 100,000

Numerator
Number of deaths due to colorectal cancer (ICD-10 codes: C18-C20 and C26.0).
Denominator
Number of persons.
National target-setting method
Projection
National target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
National target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the reduction in deaths due to colorectal cancer has been consistent over the past 10 years. More widespread implementation of colorectal cancer screening with less invasive modalities and new technologies, testing for hereditary colorectal cancer, improved nutrition and physical activity lifestyle habits, and advances in treatment are likely to lead to continuation of this trend.
National data collection frequency
Annual

Methodology

Methodology notes

Death due to malignant neoplasm of the colon and rectum (ICD-10 codes C18-C20 and C26.0). Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States, or specific State of interest, for the data year involved. For census years (e.g. 2020), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, population estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2021 resident population estimates from Vintage 2021 are used as the denominator for 2021 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 2011–2019).

Age-adjustment notes

This indicator uses Age-Adjustment Groups:

  • Total: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Sex: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Race/Ethnicity: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Geographic Location: <5, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Marital Status: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75+
  • Educational Attainment: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.
Revision History
Revised. 

In 2026, to better align the definition used to track colorectal cancer deaths with the one used to track colorectal cancer screening, the ICD-10 code C21 was removed from the definition used to calculate colorectal cancer death rates. Hence, the baseline was updated from 13.4 per 100,000 population in 2018 to 13.1 per 100,000 in 2018 and the target was changed from 8.9 to 7.7 per 100,000, without changing the target setting method.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.