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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce the lung cancer death rate — C‑02 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Sources:  National Vital Statistics System - Mortality (NVSS-M), CDC/NCHS; Population Estimates, Census

Baseline: 34.8 lung cancer deaths per 100,000 population occurred in 2018

Target: 25.1 per 100,000

Numerator
Number of deaths due to lung cancer (ICD-10 code: C34).
Denominator
Number of persons.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because the reduction in deaths due to lung cancer has been consistent over the past 10 years. More widespread implementation of lung cancer screening, in addition to reduction in tobacco use and advances in treatment, is likely to lead to continuation of this trend.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Death due to malignant neoplasm of the bronchus and lung (ICD-10 code C34). Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States for the data year involved. For census years (e.g. 2020), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, population estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2021 resident population estimates from Vintage 2021 are used as the denominator for 2021 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 2011–2019).

Age-adjustment notes

This indicator uses Age-Adjustment Groups:

  • Total: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Sex: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Race/Ethnicity: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Geographic Location: <5, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
  • Marital Status: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75+
  • Educational Attainment: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.