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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce the rate of deaths in children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years — MICH‑03 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Sources:  National Vital Statistics System - Mortality (NVSS-M), CDC/NCHS; Population Estimates, Census

Baseline: 25.2 deaths among children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years per 100,000 population occurred in 2018

Target: 18.4 per 100,000

Numerator
Number of deaths among children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years.
Denominator
Number of children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 75 percent prediction interval was selected because it was a statistically significant improvement from the baseline. The Healthy People 2030 Workgroup Subject Matter Experts took into consideration the slight increase in the objective's baseline.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States for the data year involved. For census years (e.g. 2010), population counts enumerated as of April 1 are used. For all other years, population estimates as of July 1 are used. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census year and match the data year vintage (e.g. July 1, 2011 resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g. 1991-1999, 2001-2009).

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from the related Healthy People 2020 objectives in that it is a composite of objectives MICH-3.1, MICH-3.2, MICH-4.1, and MICH-4.2, which tracked deaths to children and adolescents aged 1 to 4 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 14 years, and 15 to 19 years, respectively.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.