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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce the proportion of unintended pregnancies — FP‑01 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About this objective  |  Methodology  |  History

About this objective

Data

Data Sources:  National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), CDC/NCHS; National Vital Statistics System - Natality (NVSS-N), CDC/NCHS; Surveillance Data for Abortion, CDC/NCCDPHP; Guttmacher Institute Abortion Provider Census (APC), Guttmacher Institute; Guttmacher Institute Abortion Patient Survey (APS), Guttmacher Institute

National baseline: 39.7 percent of pregnancies among women aged 15 to 44 years were unintended in 2015

National target: 31.4 percent

Numerator
Number of pregnancies that either occurred too soon or that were not wanted among women aged 15 to 44 years.
Denominator
Number of pregnancies (live births plus abortions and fetal losses) among women aged 15 to 44 years.
National target-setting method
Projection
National target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval.
1
National target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 50 percent prediction interval was selected because no additional information could be used to assess the trend link so the target was based on the projection.
National data collection frequency
Periodic

Methodology

Questions used to obtain the national baseline data

(For additional information, please visit the data source pages linked above.)

In nationally representative surveys of women and their pregnancy histories, those who experienced a pregnancy were asked a series of questions referring to their desire for pregnancy just before it occurred. Women who reported not wanting to become pregnant at the time of conception were then asked if they would say the pregnancy occurred too soon. If they respond "yes", researchers have typically referred to these pregnancies as having occurred "too soon" or as "mistimed" pregnancies. Pregnancies among women who reported they had not wanted to become pregnant at the time of conception nor any time in the future have been categorized as "unwanted." Together, mistimed and unwanted pregnancies were considered to be "unintended." Pregnancies among women who reported that the conception occurred at the right time or later than the woman had wanted were considered to be "intended." A small fraction of women reported indifference about the timing of their pregnancies were categorized as intended. In newer research, the incidence of each category is tracked separately to retain information and avoid assumptions about what constitutes an unintended or intended pregnancy.

Methodology notes

To arrive at the total number of pregnancies, the number of U.S. births, abortions and miscarriages are estimated from several sources. To arrive at the total number of pregnancies, the number of U.S. births, abortions and miscarriages are estimated from several sources. The numbers of birth are obtained from NCHS, which tabulates data from birth certificates to obtain birth counts at the national level. For data up to 2020, the total number of abortions, including both procedural and medication abortions, is obtained from Guttmacher's Abortion Provider Census and CDC's Abortion Surveillance Data. The proportion of pregnancies categorized by pregnancy desires was estimated from similar sets of questions regarding women's desire to become pregnant right before each reported conception from the NSFG (for live births) and the Abortion Patient Survey (for abortions). To obtain the number of miscarriages in a given year, we estimate these as a proportion of births (20%) and of abortions (10%).

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Modified, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 but underwent a change in measurement.
Changes between HP2020 and HP2030
This objective differs from Healthy People 2020 objective FP-1 in that objective FP-1 tracked the proportion of pregnancies that are intended while this objective tracks the proportion of pregnancies that are unintended.
Revision History
Revised. 

The data source no longer makes estimates of unintended pregnancies and instead estimates the percentage of pregnancies that either occurred too soon or that was unwanted.
In 2026, the baseline for this objective was revised from 43.0% as reported in 2013 to 39.7% as reported in 2015. Using the original target-setting method, the target was also updated from 36.5% to 31.4%.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.